Dados do Trabalho

Título

Aedes aegypti distribution in the Americas: expansion and contraction under a moderate future climate scenario

Introdução

Aedes aegypti, the dengue vector, has a wide geographical distribution in tropical regions. The global spread of these viruses is governed by the spread of the vector, driven by anthropogenic and environmental factors. Hence, climate niche-based distribution models, which can anticipate future changes in distribution patterns, are of the utmost importance in understanding and mitigating the potential impact of these diseases.  

Objetivo (s)

This study aims to measure the rates of change in the suitability or probability of occurrence of the dengue mosquito vector in the Americas.

Material e Métodos

We evaluated climate niche models using the MaxEnt algorithm, contrasting metrics to help identify configurations that balance model fit and predictive ability. For this, we used neotropical distribution records and bioclimatic variables. We then used moderate climate change scenarios (Representative concentration pathway 4.5) to obtain projections for 2050 and 2070. We then used moderate climate change scenarios (Representative concentration pathway 4.5) to obtain projections for 2050 and 2070. Finally, we calculated and mapped the average annual rate of suitability change from the present to 2050 and from 2050 to 2070.  

Resultados e Conclusão

In 2050, we estimate a decreasing trend in suitability towards Florida, the southeast region of the United States, northeastern Argentina, eastern Paraguay and west-central Brazil. For the same time interval, a rate of increase in suitability is expected for the Guianas region, northeastern Venezuela, eastern, northern Brazil, southern Brazil and southern Uruguay. Between 2050 and 2070, a rate of increase in suitability is expected for the Guianas region, eastern north Brazil, southern Brazil, Uruguay and south-eastern Argentina. We believe that our results provide a methodological basis for improvements aimed at greater spatial and temporal resolution.

Palavras Chave

climate niche models; MaxEnt algorithm; Aedes aegypti; dengue vector; geographical distribution