Dados do Trabalho

Título

Analysis of an agent-based metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-19 variant arrival and spread in the Dourados Indigenous Reserve, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Introdução

Deadly respiratory viral epidemics, such as COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, pose a threat to worldwide political and economic stability. This is especially true in areas with endemic tropical diseases, where people are at greater risk of severe disease, complications, or death from COVID-19. In Brazil, Indigenous peoples faced greater incidence and more severe disease from COVID-19, putting them at greater risk as novel variants spread into the Indigenous reserves from nearby urban areas. This was observed in a recent detailed genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variant diffusion into the Dourados Indigenous Reserve in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. Variant diffusion into the Dourados Reserve is hypothesized to be driven by young Indigenous men traveling between the reserve and the city of Dourados for economic reasons.

Objetivo (s)

Here we set out to computationally evaluate this hypothesis and test, in silico, plausible interventions to reduce transmission from the city to the reserve.

Material e Métodos

To evaluate the hypothesis that mobile young men are primarily responsible for bringing new strains from the city to the Reserve, we develop and computationally analyze an agent-based SIR model with demographic and epidemiological parameters derived from the Dourados COVID-19 context.

Resultados e Conclusão

We find that when the hypothetical group of traveling young men is smaller or travels less frequently, novel variants originating in the city diffuse more slowly into the Dourados reserve, and infections from these novel variants peak later and at a lower overall incidence rate. Therefore, temporarily reducing the need of young men to travel for work could be an effective public health intervention while new variants are initially circulating in larger cities. Since the model is generalizable, this work has broader theoretical implications for the epidemiology of metapopulations worldwide.

Palavras Chave

metapopulações; comportamento social; Epidemiologia; Povos indígenas