Dados do Trabalho

Título

Bernoulli Modeling in Spatial Analysis of Elevated Aedes spp. Egg Counts in Buritizeiro, MG

Introdução

Entomological surveillance, especially through the use of traps for capturing Aedes spp. eggs, is essential for controlling arboviruses such as dengue, zika, and chikungunya.

Objetivo (s)

The aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of clusters of Aedes spp. egg laying in the municipality of Buritizeiro, MG, by applying spatial scan analysis to detect risk areas.

Material e Métodos

In April and May 2024, 75 PneuTrap3D® traps were distributed in households and regularly inspected for the presence of Aedes spp. eggs and larvae. The collected trap paddles were analyzed, and the eggs were counted to calculate the ovitrap positivity index (IPO) and the egg density index (IDO). The occurrence of space-time clusters of high egg counts was evaluated using SaTScan 10.1, employing the spatial scan technique for a Bernoulli distribution.

Resultados e Conclusão

The results showed that the average IPO for Buritizeiro was 43.2±11.9 (range 30.7 to 59.4), and the average IDO was 44.6±22.9 (range 21.8 to 71.9). When evaluated using purely spatial scan analysis, two clusters of PneuTrap3D® traps with high egg counts were detected: the first in the southwestern region of the city, with 14 traps, a radius of 0.58 km, and a relative risk of 1.03; the second high-count point had one PneuTrap3D® with a relative risk of 1.03. When assessing the clustering of high results using the space-time model, two significant clusters were detected: one was the same previously identified in the southwestern region, with elevated egg counts occurring from April 24 to May 20, 2024, and a second cluster, with three traps concentrating the counts, was detected in the western region of the city from April 24 to May 9, 2024. The results indicate that Buritizeiro has critical areas of Aedes aegypti infestation, especially in the southwestern and western regions, with specific periods of increased egg counts. These data suggest the need for targeted and continuous control actions in these areas to reduce the risk of dengue and other arbovirus outbreaks. The use of ovitraps and space-time analysis are useful tools for identifying and monitoring these hotspots, enabling more effective and timely interventions.

Palavras Chave

Spatial scanning; Bernoulli distribution; Aedes aegypti control