Dados do Trabalho

Título

A Democratic Disease - Absence of Spatial Autocorrelation Between Dengue Incidence and Social Vulnerability Index in Bahia (2007-2021)

Introdução

Dengue is currently the fastest-growing human arbovirus globally, transmitted by the bite of the female Aedes aegypti mosquito. It is estimated that many people live in areas at risk of infection, and projections indicate an increasing trend in both the incidence of cases and deaths as well as the geographic expansion of the disease.

Objetivo (s)

To analyze the evolution of dengue incidence associated with the Vulnerability Index (IVS) in the state of Bahia from 2007 to 2021. 

Material e Métodos

Confirmed dengue cases by municipality of notification, by year, and estimated population data were obtained from the Brazilian Health Information System (TABNET-DATASUS) to calculate incidences by municipalities, for spatial scan analysis using a discrete Poisson model in SaTScan v10.1.2, and for the application of the univariate Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) in identifying clusters of accumulated dengue incidence during the period from 2007 to 2021. The IVS of Brazilian municipalities for the year 2010 was obtained from the Social Vulnerability Atlas of the Institute of Applied Economic Research, for the evaluation of the bivariate LISA between IVS and accumulated dengue incidence. GeoDa 1.20.0.10 was used for these spatial correlations.

Resultados e Conclusão

A total of 678,164 dengue cases were reported in Bahia between 2007-2021. The years 2009, 2013, and 2020 had the highest number of cases, with the highest incidence in the Central North region (6.08/1000 inhabitants). In 2021, the Western region stood out with an incidence of 5.88/1000 inhabitants, and its Health Regions: Santa Maria da Vitória (7.19/1000 inhabitants), Ibotirama (5.60/1000 inhabitants), Barreiras (4.86/1000 inhabitants), and Irecê (1.68/1000 inhabitants). The spatiotemporal scan identified three clusters of high dengue incidence rates during the study period: a cluster in the Southern Region with 21.82 cases/1000 inhabitants (rr= 8.03; 2009-2016), and two in the Central East with 25.04 cases/1000 inhabitants (rr= 8.66; 2008-2011) and (10.98 cases/1000 inhabitants, rr=3.77; 2019-2020). The spatial autocorrelation analysis between IVS and dengue incidence did not show significant clusters. Conclusion: The study showed a high incidence of dengue cases in Bahia, with spatiotemporal clusters of incidences and no spatial association with social vulnerability indices.

Palavras Chave

Dengue epidemic; Spatial analysis; Social vulnerability