Dados do Trabalho

Título

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Congenital Syphilis in Brazil: Insights and Vulnerability

Introdução

Introduction: Congenital syphilis (CS) remains a pressing public health challenge in Brazil, with a concerning rise in cases in recent years. Spatiotemporal analysis can offer valuable insights into the geographic distribution and temporal trends of the disease, aiding in the identification of high-risk areas and guiding prevention and control efforts.

Objetivo (s)

Objectives: To evaluate the relationship between congenital syphilis incidence and the Social Vulnerability Index (IVS) to pinpoint areas of heightened risk and vulnerability.

Material e Métodos

Material and Methods: CS data from 2007 to 2022 were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), alongside newborn population data from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC). Incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 newborns. Data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2018 for tabulation, Epi Info 6.2 for basic descriptive statistics, SaTScan 10.1.2 for spatial scan analysis, and GeODA 1.2 for spatial autocorrelation with the IVS.

Resultados e Conclusão

Results: Analysis revealed a steady increase in average incidence over the study period. Nationwide, average incidence rose from 1.16 in 2007 to 6.74 in 2022, with a slight decline in 2020. Regional analysis showed significant increases: in Tocantins (North), from 1.92 in 2007 to 10.13 in 2022; Pernambuco (Northeast), from 1.10 to 11.40; Federal District (Center-West), from 1.77 to 11.61; Rio de Janeiro (Southeast), from 1.86 to 12.43; and Rio Grande do Sul (South), from 0.57 to 7.55. Spatial scan analysis identified two periods of high incidence: 2015-2022 (RR=2.55) and 16 clusters, notably around Porto Alegre (RR=3.37) and other regions. Spatial autocorrelation between CS incidence and IVS from 2007-2014 and 2015-2022 revealed 410 and 383 municipalities, respectively, with high rates in both indices, mainly in central-north Brazil and the Northeast coast. Conclusion: Comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of congenital syphilis in Brazil highlighted significant geographic and temporal patterns. Identifying clusters with high incidence rates, particularly in vulnerable IVS regions, is crucial for targeted interventions. These insights are essential for enhancing the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies, especially among vulnerable populations. Continued analysis is vital for monitoring disease trends and adapting interventions accordingly.  

Palavras Chave

Key-words: congenital syphilis; spatiotemporal analysis; Social vulnerability